WASHINGTON, D.C.: As Republicans head toward a high-stakes midterm election year, Donald Trump has positioned himself as the party's loudest voice on the cost of living, repeatedly declaring victory over inflation even as many Americans say everyday expenses continue to strain their budgets.

A Reuters review of five speeches Trump has delivered on the economy since December shows the president asserting that inflation has been beaten or is "way down" nearly 20 times, while claiming prices are falling almost 30 times. Those statements sit uneasily alongside economic data showing inflation hovering near 3 percent over the past year and consumers still paying more for staples such as food and coffee.

Taken together, the speeches depict a president struggling to align his central message – that the cost-of-living crisis has been fixed – with voters' lived experience. Since Trump took office a year ago, the price of ground beef has risen 18 percent, while ground coffee prices are up 29 percent.

Republican strategists say the gap between Trump's rhetoric and household reality risks undercutting the party ahead of November's midterms, when control of Congress will be at stake. Opinion polls show voters remain deeply dissatisfied with Trump's handling of the economy.

"He can't continue to make claims that are demonstrably false, particularly at the expense of Republicans who are in competitive House districts or Senate races," said Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist. Trump "must be disciplined and focused," he added.

One source close to the White House said Trump needed to push the affordability message more directly by visiting key districts. "He needs to bring the message out because the message is not resonating," the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said Trump's focus on illegal immigration in his speeches is directly linked to his economic argument, citing "public services being overburdened, business activity disrupted by crime, housing markets flooded, and workers' wages depressed." Trump, Desai added, has repeatedly stressed that much work remains to undo what he calls the economic damage left by his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden.

Veering off Message

When Trump was not declaring inflation beaten, he often strayed far from prices altogether. Reuters found that in roughly five hours of speaking time, Trump spent nearly half addressing unrelated grievances and topics.

Illegal immigration dominated those detours, accounting for roughly 30 to 40 minutes of his remarks. In several speeches, Trump insulted Somali Americans in Minnesota, who largely voted against him in 2024, referring to Somalia as "not even a country." In four speeches, he disparaged Ilhan Omar, a Somali-born Minnesota lawmaker and frequent Trump critic.

"Every time the president of the United States has chosen to use hateful rhetoric to talk about me and the community that I represent, my death threats skyrocket," Omar said last month, a day after a man sprayed a foul-smelling liquid on her at a town hall.

Trump also digressed into topics including men in women's sports, Venezuela, Iran, the Islamic State, Greenland, Ukraine, and Russia, military recruitment, his false claim that the 2020 election was rigged, U.S. weapons systems, and even how much a Fox News anchor likes him.

"Inflation is stopped. Incomes are up. Prices are down," Trump said in an Iowa speech on January 27.

Only twice across the five speeches did Trump acknowledge that prices remain too high, blaming Democrats for the problem. At a Pennsylvania rally on December 9, he said Democrats caused prices "to be too high," adding, "But now they're coming down."

In that same speech, Trump called the term "affordability" a Democratic "hoax," a remark he has since dropped following public backlash.

Several Republican strategists said Trump's meandering style – which he calls "the weave" – risks drowning out his economic message. Speaking to leaders at the World Economic Forum in January, Trump stayed on topic for 22 minutes before spending the next 22 minutes attacking Europe, NATO, and the media, then pivoting back to the economy.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said voters want clarity. "But they have no memory of what Trump says about economic issues because of the volume of his own rhetoric."

Prices, Policies, and Limits

For many Americans, inflation still feels painful. While the inflation rate has edged down from three percent to 2.7 percent since Trump took office, economists stress that slower inflation does not mean falling prices.

In the 12 months through December 2025, food prices rose more than three percent, while average hourly earnings increased just 1.1 percent. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent in December from four percent a year earlier.

Trump has pointed to falling prices for eggs and gas. Egg prices dropped about 21 percent in December from a year earlier, after surging earlier in his term, while gas prices are roughly four percent lower than last January. But grocery costs overall have continued to rise.

In his speeches, Trump has promoted solutions including tax cuts that took effect last month, proposals to scrap taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits, plans to lower mortgage rates and housing costs, and deals with insurers to reduce drug prices.

Economists say the tax cuts could boost household finances later this year, but many of Trump's newer proposals are unlikely to materially reduce living costs before November. One idea – a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10 percent – could even restrict access to credit for lower-income families, some economists warn.

Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Trump and Republicans were delivering results. "Voters are seeing this clear contrast, and the best is yet to come."

Still, only 35 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, according to a January 25 Reuters/Ipsos survey, down sharply from the 42 percent approval he enjoyed when he first took office.

Former officials say Trump risks repeating Biden's 2024 mistake of talking past voters on inflation.

"We definitely talked past people on inflation," said Jared Bernstein, former head of Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. "What we typically did was to say, 'A new report just came out on jobs, it's very strong,' and that was all true. But the fact is that there wasn't much we were able to do in terms of the price level."